Evolutionarily stable strategies

๐Ÿฆ…

Animals of the same species fight over food and mates, but rarely to the death. Too much aggression and everyone gets injured; too little and the meek get pushed aside. Evolution settles on a mix, and game theory predicts exactly what fraction.

Evolutionarily stable strategies

Nash equilibrium assumes reasoning. Evolution needs none: strategies that do well reproduce, those that do badly die out. An evolutionarily stable strategy is one that, once common, resists invasion by any rare mutant. In Hawk-Dove it is a precise mix of aggression and restraint.

From earlier lessons
Two quick ones before we start.

A mixed strategy is a probability distribution over...

At a mixed equilibrium a player is...

Predict, then play

Hawks fight; Doves back down. Fighting over a resource worth VV risks an injury cost CC. Set the values and let the population evolve: the higher-fitness type reproduces faster.

Exhibit 1 ย Hawk-Dove; fitness drives the population mix
With value V = 2 and injury cost C = 6, what stable fraction of Hawks does the population settle at?

Why did that happen?

Take a guess, then reveal the reason

The mix is self-correcting. When Hawks are scarce, they mostly meet Doves and grab the resource uncontested, so they thrive and their share rises. When Hawks are common, they mostly meet other Hawks and pay the injury cost, so they do worse than Doves and their share falls. The only fraction where neither type has an edge, so neither grows, is V/CV/C. No animal is reasoning; the arithmetic of reproduction does the work.

The math

Definition, evolutionarily stable strategy

A strategy is an ESS if, when almost everyone plays it, no rare mutant playing anything else can earn higher average fitness and invade. Formally ss is an ESS if for every alternative sโ€ฒs', either u(s,s)>u(sโ€ฒ,s)u(s,s) > u(s',s), or u(s,s)=u(sโ€ฒ,s)u(s,s) = u(s',s) and u(s,sโ€ฒ)>u(sโ€ฒ,sโ€ฒ)u(s,s') > u(s',s'). Every ESS is a Nash equilibrium, but the invasion condition is strictly stronger.

Hawk-Dove payoffs: two Hawks split the resource and share the injury, (Vโˆ’C)/2(V-C)/2; a Hawk against a Dove takes it all, VV; a Dove against a Hawk gets nothing; two Doves share peacefully, V/2V/2. With V=2V = 2, C=6C = 6, that is Hawk-Hawk =โˆ’2= -2, Hawk-Dove =2= 2, Dove-Hawk =0= 0, Dove-Dove =1= 1.

When C>VC > V there is no pure ESS: all-Hawk is invadable by Doves (Hawks injure each other), and all-Dove is invadable by Hawks (a lone Hawk cleans up). The stable mix sets Hawk and Dove fitness equal. At Hawk fraction pp, Hawk fitness is 2โˆ’4p2 - 4p and Dove fitness is 1โˆ’p1 - p; equating gives pโˆ—=V/C=1/3p^* = V/C = 1/3.

Work it out

Find the stable Hawk fraction

At a Hawk fraction pp, a Hawk meets a Hawk with probability pp (payoff โˆ’2-2) and a Dove with probability 1โˆ’p1-p (payoff 22), so its fitness is โˆ’2p+2(1โˆ’p)=2โˆ’4p-2p + 2(1-p) = 2 - 4p. A Dove earns 00 against Hawks and 11 against Doves, so its fitness is 1โˆ’p1 - p.

Set them equal: 2โˆ’4p=1โˆ’p2 - 4p = 1 - p, giving 3p=13p = 1, so pโˆ—=1/3=V/Cp^* = 1/3 = V/C. Below 1/31/3, Hawks earn more and their share grows; above 1/31/3, they earn less and it shrinks. So 1/31/3 is stable against invasion from either side, exactly the ESS. Raising the injury cost CC lowers the stable Hawk share, since fighting becomes more dangerous.

Key idea

Key idea

An evolutionarily stable strategy resists invasion by any rare mutant, a stronger test than Nash. In Hawk-Dove with costly injuries, the stable population is a mix, with a Hawk fraction of exactly V/C.

Check yourself

Check yourselfapply
Injury cost rises from C = 6 to C = 10 (value still 2). What happens to the stable Hawk fraction?
Check yourselfanalyse
Why is all-Hawk not evolutionarily stable when C > V?
Check yourselfbrings back: mixed strategies
How does the ESS relate to the mixed Nash equilibrium of Hawk-Dove?

Sources

  1. Maynard Smith, J., and Price, G. R. (1973). The logic of animal conflict. Nature, 246, 15-18.